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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

NFC West: It's Hard to be Optimistic

Arizona Cardinals

Key Returnees:

  • Offense - RB Beanie Wells and RB Larod Stephens-Howling both are young backs that averaged over 4.0 yards per carry last season, and WR Larry Fitzgerald is simply one of the best players in the league no matter who is throwing the ball. He is complimented by fellow wide-outs Early Doucet and Andre Roberts, who each caught 50-plus balls last season, so there is no shortage of veteran targets. QB's John Skelton and  Kevin Kolb could be battling it out for the starting position and both have starting experience. Lots of starters also return on the O-line to protect whoever is rushing or dropping back to pass.
  • Defense - LB Daryl Washington is the returning team leader in tackles and he also contributed five sacks last season. DL Calais Campbell is a monster of a human-being at 6'8", 300 lbs. He returns after leading the team in sacks (8) last season, as does DE Sam Acho after being second in sacks (7). DB Richard Marshall led the team in INT's and was second on the team in tackles. The team will love having his game back. QB's avoid throwing towards CB Patrick Peterson whenever possible out of fear of a pick-six. SS Adrian Wilson and DT Darnell Docket have been leaders on the team for a while and each have at least one more good year out of them.
  • Special Teams - Patrick Peterson returned four punts for TD's and averaged over 15 yards per return last season, which tells you why opposing teams try to stay away from him at all costs. The Cardinals were also 5th in the NFL in punting.

Secret Weapon: RB Ryan Williams - After being selected in the second round and looking good in the early portion of training camp, the young ball-carrier from Virginia Tech suffered a season-ending knee injury. He is still working to recover but he could be the best of the bunch and may be the starter before mid-season, depending how the rehab goes. At any rate, the combination of Williams, Wells, and Stephens-Howling could save the day for whoever plays QB.

Top Newcomers:
  • WR Michael Floyd - After being selected by the team high in the first round he needs utilize his frame (6'3", 225 lbs) and become a reliable target in the red zone to take pressure off Fitzgerald. Floyd has a rare opportunity to play opposite a modern great and he seems to have the talent to compete. He should help make the QB's job a bit easier overall as well.
Optimistic Fan Says: "This team has some youth at some key positions but there are some big-time players on both sides of the ball, including all-pros Fitzgerald and Peterson. Both Skelton and Kolb appear up to the challenge to deliver the ball to a slew of targets on the outside while handing off to a deep, young group of running backs. With last year's growing pains under their belts the Cardinals should be primed to knock San Francisco out of the Division's top spot. After all, the Card's QB situation is no worse than the Rams, Seahawks, or the 49ers at this point, so it is realistically anybody's crown for the taking in the NFC West."

Reality Check: This roster looks like an 8-8 team that will most-likely miss the playoffs in 2012. There are simply too many "ifs" that would have to pan out in order for this team to make a splash any time soon, so don't bet on them. Not having an established signal-caller at the helm of the offense instantly puts them at a disadvantage in every non-division match-up.

Projected 2012 Record: 6-10

San Fransisco 49ers

Key Returnees:

  • Offense - RB's Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter both return after combining for 1684 rushing yards and 10 TD's. WR Michael Crabtree seems to be developing into solid pro as he caught 72 passes for 874 yards, which led the team. TE Vernon Davis churned out another good season with 67 catches and six TD's. There are several young players on the O-line that are loaded with potential. Though struggled a little bit throughout the season last year but the hopes are high that they will improve greatly. The biggest reason for the 49ers offensive success last season was the turnaround of QB Alex Smith's play. He didn't throw for a ton of yards but he completed 61% of his passes for 17 TD's and only five INT's. The team doesn't expect him to improve too much on those numbers as long as the turnovers are down.
  • Defense - The number one defense in the NFL against the run last year, this defense hits people early, often, and with extreme prejudice. If you are wearing different colors and you have the ball in your hands you may want to protect yourself. LB's NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis have established themselves as the team's top two tacklers and second year OLB/DE Aldon Smith will try to improve his overall game after posting 14 sacks as a rookie. Ahmad Brooks patrols the field on the other side and he also chipped in seven sacks. S Dashon Goldson was third in tackles and first in INT's for San Fran with six picks. Fellow DB Donte Whitner was fourth in tackles and also chipped in two picks. DE Justin Smith brings a lot of toughness and a good all-around game up front and line-mate Ray McDonald is beginning to play more like he did in college at Florida. 
  • Special Teams - The '9ers were first in field goals, first in kick returns, and ranked in the top 10 in both kicking and punt coverage, which tells you a lot more about how this team got where it did last year.
Secret Weapon: WR A.J. Jenkins - The rookie first round pick out of Illinois wasn't projected to be taken so high by most analysts but the staff in San Fran saw something they loved about him. He has had a decent preseason but is currently behind several players all vying for playing time. He will get lost in the shuffle for now but could emerge as a huge threat as the season progresses. Eventually, the team sees him as a starting caliber player or they wouldn't have taken him so high.

Top Newcomers: 
  • RB Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs is well-versed in the art of playing in a loaded backfield. He's the type of guy that could be quiet throughout the season while Gore and Hunter get most of the reps only to emerge in January to put up some big games in the playoffs.
  • WR Mario Manningham - Was one of Eli Manning's favorite targets over the last few years and came up with a big catch to help seal the Super Bowl win against the Patriots just seven months ago. He helps bring experience to a group that needs it.
  • WR Randy Moss - Was not brought in to be a starter, just to help push the defense down-field and open things up for the offense a few times per game.
  • RB LaMichael James - One of the fastest backs in college now becomes one of the fastest in the NFL. James will probably be counted on to play special teams and get 3-5 offensive touches per game. His fantasy value will be nothing but his presence alone could help open up the field more.
Optimistic Fan Says: "Last year we busted our cherry and grew up. This year it's time to put the women and children to bed and go looking for dinner! In other words, it's Super Bowl or bust!!"

Reality Check: Can you bet on Coach Jim Harbaugh to repeat his magic from last season when they took the entire league by surprise? I don't think so. Smith is still too much of a question mark at QB and there just isn't enough balls to go around to all the talented backs. Just having that new pool of talent at receiver isn't enough to improve the offense. You actually have to get the ball distributed into all their hands in order for them to truly make an impact. If Smith falters early at all fans will turn on him.

Projected 2012 Record: 10-6

Seattle Seahawks

Key Returnees:
  • Offense - Marshawn Lynch and Leon Washington provide a solid tandem in Seattle's backfield. Lynch had over 1200 rushing yards and scored 12 TD's while Washington averaged nearly five yards per carry. Both will be expected to contribute just as much this season. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Ben Obomanu each caught at least 32 passes and two TD's in 2011. Each one of those guys will be expected to improve upon their respective stats, especially with improved QB play. The team has spent a few high draft picks on linemen over the last few years, and some gems are starting to surface, but their production has been a bit lacking overall. C Max Unger and LT Russell Okung could each become leaders on this team.
  • Defense - After placing ninth in the NFL in yards allowed last season, the pressure will be on the defense to get the team over the hump and back into the playoffs. 11 out of the Seahawk's top 12 tacklers from last year return, including FS Earl Thomas, SS Kam Chancellor, LB K.J. Wright, and CB Richard Sherman. All four of these guys are under 25 years of age and should be big contributors on defense in the years to come. 
  • Special Teams - There are no real weaknesses in this phase of the game as the Seahawks are consistently in the top half of all special teams categories. Leon Washington has been one of the best return men in the game for several years now.
Secret Weapon: WR Doug Baldwin - He is currently fifth on the depth chart at the position so nobody will probably remember that he led the team with 51 catches for 788 yards and four TD's as a rookie. Although he might get less targets in 2012, with improved QB play and better depth at WR Baldwin should be able to do some great things when given the opportunity.

Top Newcomers: 
  • QB Russell Wilson - The rookie from Wisconsin won the job during the preseason and if he can look that good during the preseason the team could push for a division crown.
  • LB Bobby Wagner - The rookie from Utah State will be the starter in the middle. He should be solid if unspectacular.
  • QB Matt Flynn - The top backup in Green Bay now becomes the top backup in Seattle after receiving a big contract in free agency. If Wilson struggles Flynn will get his chance to shine.
  • OLB/DE Bruce Irvin - The surprise pick of the first round this past April has some serious speed and pass-rush skills that the team will try to tap into on third downs.
  • RB Robert Turbin - Another good preseason performer out of Utah State that will get opportunities to make plays come game day. Expect him to get anywhere between a half dozen to a dozen touches per game later in the season. If Lynch gets hurt he should get the starting nod.
  • DT Jason Jones - Not a top-end defender but could be a nice brick in the wall.
  • WR Braylon Edwards - Although he's not the player he once was in Cleveland, Edwards could surprise a lot of defenders as the first or second option off the bench. The team could really use his size in the redzone. 
Optimistic Fan Says: "They will surprise everybody and win the division. Just email me, Andrew Graham, at andrew.graham.792@facebook.com and I will tell you everything there is to know that is good about my beloved Seahawks. I have been a life-long fan even though I've never stepped foot in Seattle."

Reality Check: This is one of the hardest teams to predict as the running game and defense is enough to challenge most teams throughout the season, but the play at QB is a huge question mark at this point. If Wilson or Flynn can turn out a banner year the 'Hawks could just take over as division champs. The chances of that happening would be slim in most divisions, but this is the NFC West: where champions don't need winning records. 

Projected 2012 Record: 8-8

St Louis Rams

Key Returnees:
  • Offense - QB Sam Bradford has had two up and down seasons since being the first player taken overall in 2010. The next two years should give us a clearer picture of what type of player he will become. RB Steven Jackson returns for his umpteenth season as the team's top offensive player. He should get another 1100 yards on the ground and a half dozen TD's. He will probably tack on another 40 catches to his professional resume as well. WR Danny Amendola returns after missing most of last season due to injury and he should quickly reestablish himself as Bradford's favorite target. 
  • Defense - LB James Laurinaitis will probably lead this team in tackles for the next decade and provide solid leadership on and off the field. DE Chris Long is coming around after posting 13 sacks last season and he should be a regular contributor for a while as well. Last year's top pick, DE Robert Quinn, made five sacks as well. This is a unit loaded with young, hungry players. They will improve.
  • Special Teams - The Rams specialized in punting last season, ranking second in the NFL.
Secret Weapon: None

Top Newcomers:
  • CB Janoris Jenkins - The problematic Jenkins could turn out to be the real steal of the draft. He might be the most skilled coverman to come out of college in 2012 and should be a starter right away for the Rams.
  • WR Steve Smith - He has averaged about 46 catches per year in his five years in the league and should help improve the depth at the position.
  • CB Cortland Finnegan - A guy that Coach Jeff Fisher knows he can rely on to be where he needs to be on defense and make tackles after spending several seasons with him in Tennessee.
  • RB Isaiah Pead - Will immediately serve as Jackson's backup and should get plenty of action on special teams. He appears to have some nice quickness and football instincts.
Optimistic Fan Says: "I'll believe it when I see it."

Reality Check: It may be hard to be optimistic in St Louis but Fisher is one of the best coaches in football. There are some nice young pieces mixed in with some quality veterans that could turn things around in a hurry. However, the O-line is horrific, the receivers lack big-play potential, and there enough holes on defense to let good offense get too far ahead. I'd say there's a slim chance of playoffs but the team should be more competitive in relatively weak division. 

Projected 2012 Record: 7-9

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