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Monday, July 30, 2012

The Optimistic NFL Fan's Preview: AFC North Division

Baltimore Ravens

Key Returnees:
  • Offense - RB Ray Rice is one of the most consistent performers in the NFL at the position today. He can just about do it all and is as dependable as they come. QB Joe Flacco is gaining some confidence after experiencing various growing pains over the last few seasons and he realizes how lucky he is to have a guy like Rice in the backfield with him. WR Anquan Boldin is built like a running back and plays a hard-nosed style at receiver that fits well in the division. Speedster Torrey Smith caught 50 passes as a rookie and could be poised for a stellar season. The O-line is stable enough to lead the way for a top 10 rushing offense. All in all, the pieces are there for a top 10 scoring unit.
  • Defense - Ranking third in the entire NFL, this group is loaded with crafty veterans and promising youngsters that truly give this team its identity. LB Ray Lewis is possibly the best player at his position ever, and the same could be be said about FS Ed Reed as well. However, some people think that they are not even the best defenders on the team. That honor could go to DT Haloti Ngata. The rest of the crew is good enough to start for most other teams in the league. CB Ladarius Webb is a rising star.
  • Special Teams - The Ravens are in the top 10 in most major kicking categories and Webb and Reed are both dangerous punt returners. 
Secret Weapon: TE Ed Dickson - Caught 11 passes as a rookie backup in 2010 and then caught 54 balls with five TD's in his first year as a starter in '11. Look for him to get a lot of looks from Flacco from here on out, especially as the team gets closer to the red zone.

Top Newcomers:

  • OLB/DE Courtney Upshaw - This kid was a leader on a great college defense and he demolished a lot of opponents in the SEC. In this defense he has the opportunity to get a dozen sacks and make lots of tackles as a rookie.
  • OT Kelechi Osemele - A huge (6'5" 335 lbs) lineman that can play at least three out of the five positions along the front. He at least improves the depth and could become a fulltime starter very quickly. 
Optimistic Fan Says: "This team has all the key parts in place to make another Super Bowl run. With everybody healthy on defense anything is possible and do not be surprised if Ray Rice breaks 2,000 yards on the ground."

Reality Check: Flacco just isn't Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, or Tom Brady-enough to get this team over the hump and into the big show and the depth at receiver isn't very good either. Not to mention, Terrell Suggs, who collected 14 sacks last season, is out with an achilles tendon injury for an indefinite amount of time. That will leave a lot of pressure on some young guys to perform at a high level. They could still win 10 games and get through a round of playoffs, but I don't see them making a statement in 2012. The Division is just too good from the top down.

Projected 2012 Record: 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Returnees:
  • Offense - RB's Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott should combine for about 1500 yards on the ground and WR A.J. Green could be the next 1500 yard receiver in the NFL. QB Andy Dalton is no Tom Brady or Peyton Manning but he was fairly steady and dependable as a rookie. TE Jermaine Gresham and the offensive line are all underrated but should get more recognition as the team continues to win games.
  • Defense - Seventh in the league in yards allowed, this unit is pretty talented and deep. LB's Thomas Howard and Rey Maualuga are the top two tacklers, while S Reggie Nelson was third. Nelson also led the team with four INT's. No player collected more sacks than DT Geno Atkins' 7.5 but the entire defense ranked fifth in the league with 45. That says a lot about the quality of depth.
  • Special Teams - K Mike Nugent led the team in scoring with 132 points and was second in the league in field goals and the coverage units ranked fourth. 
Secret Weapon: WR Jordan Shipley - After catching 52 passes as a rookie in 2010, Shipley went down with an injury after two games last season. He is expected to return and provide Dalton with a reliable outlet if Green is double-teamed, which he will be a lot in the near future. Do not be surprised if Shipley catches 70 balls and finds the endzone a half a dozen times.

Top Newcomers:
  • CB's Dre Kirkpatrick -  The team was not desperate for an immediate upgrade at any one position so they were able to draft the best player available in this past April's draft. Kirkpatrick should be a starter and he gives the Bengals a tall, rangy defender that knows how to tackle. He could also play safety.
  • CB Terrence Newman -  Newman is a smart veteran that has gobbled up 32 picks in his 10-year career. He should help the defense slow down big-time NFL passing games.
  • OG Kevin Zietler - The Bengal's other first round pick comes in with a reputation of being big (6'4" 315 lbs), strong, and nasty. His run-blocking skills could be just what the offense needs to improve the ground and pound game.
  • DT Devon Still - He might not get too much playing time as a rookie but this guy has a lot of tools that the team believes they can develop into a solid performer. He should at least improve the overall depth and aid in holding the line against tough AFC North running attacks.
Optimistic Fan Says: "We finally have the team to knock Baltimore and Pittsburgh out of the top spot in the division while winning 11 or 12 games. A first round bye and a deep run is definitely not out of the question."

Reality Check: Although the Bengals are primed for a nice run in 2012, the AFC North Division is as tough as it gets so winning 10 games would be a monstrous feat in and of itself. This team needs another year to develop anyway.

Projected 2012 Record: 8-8

Cleveland Browns

Key Returnees:
  • Offense - This group is in a developmental transition stage but there are some very nice pieces to build around. WR Greg Little caught 62 passes as a rookie last year and is a beastly target at 6'2" 220 lbs. He could develop into a true number one receiver. QB Colt McCoy can be the starter but he will make an even better backup now that Brandon Weeden is on board. The same can be said for RB Montario Hardesty with Trent Richardson being drafted third overall. OT Joe Thomas is one of the best pass-blockers in the game and C Alex Mack continues to rise. Overall, the O-line should continue to grow and improve.
  • Defense - This is one of the more underrated defensive units in the entire league after ranking 10th in 2011. LB D'Qwell Jackson is the returning leading tackler with 116 and he has developed into a leader. DT Ahtyba Rubin had 53 tackles and also chipped in five sacks. He should team up with second-year player Phil Taylor to give the Browns a formidable pair of 320+ pounders in the middle of the line. DE Jabaal Sheard came on strong as a rookie as well, posting 8.5 sacks to lead the team. CB Joe Haden will once again be the team's best cover man as he continues to build a strong NFL resume after being the seventh overall pick in 2010. S T.J. Ward played very well as a rookie and is looking to bounce back after an injury-plagued sophomore campaign. 
  • Special Teams - The kick kicking and field goal units didn't rank very high in 2011, but with an improved offense to help keep them all off the field more they should rank higher.
Secret Weapon: RB Chris Ogbonnaya - In 11 games last year, Ogbonnaya averaged 4.6 yards on 73 carries and also chipped in 23 receptions. He will continue to get chances to contribute as the Browns make a move to drive the ball right up the middle of opposing defenses every opportunity they get. The lack of talent at receiver makes having a stable of backs that much more valuable.

Top Newcomer: QB Brandon Weeden - All eyes will be on RB Trent Richardson as fans expect him to literally carry the load on offense, but the Browns also drafted Weeden in the first round to step in and provide an instant upgrade over McCoy. After spending a few years in minor league baseball before playing QB for Oklahoma State, Weeden comes in as a polished 28-year old rookie. Do not be surprised if he quickly surpasses both Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton to become the best passer in the division not named Ben Roethlisberger. 

Optimisitc Fan Says: "Trent Richardson will be the best back in the division and Brandon Weeden will improve the team's passing game. With a little more help on offense the 10th ranked defense will only get better now that they don't have to spend so much time on the field. A wild card is within reach and once in the playoffs we could surprise a few teams in January."

Reality Check: Richardson and Weeden are both rookies being asked to turn things around for the team on offense. That's simply too much to ask in a division that has three other top 10 defenses in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. A five or six win season seems more likely and seven wins would be a definite step in the right direction. At best, this team is another year away from any real playoff hopes.

Projected 2012 Record: 6-10

Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Returnees: 

  • Offense - QB Ben Roethlisberger has long put his troubled past to bed and is definitely ready for some football. He is a two-time Super Bowl Champ that threw for over 4,000 yards last season so he is definitely in the hunt again. Rashard Mendenhall leads a deep group of backs that are nothing special but they get the job done the way the people like it in Pittsburgh. The Steelers also return its top three pass-catchers from a year ago, including speedster Mike Wallace who led the team with 1193 yards and eight TD's. There is an interesting mix of young talent and proven veterans that could spell trouble for a lot of defenses as the season progresses.
  • Defense - Number one overall in total yards allowed last season, the defense returns everybody that truly matters, including S Troy Palamalu, S Ryan Clark, OLB Lamar Woodley, OLB James Harrison, LB Lawrence Timmons, and NT Casey Hampton. All of them are all-pro material and some of the backups could start for other teams.
  • Special Teams - This team is just about as solid as any due to their hard-working mentality and discipline. 
Secret Weapon: WR Emmanuel Sanders - Sanders has managed to catch at least 22 passes and two TD's in his first two NFL seasons while being fourth or fifth on the depth chart. He should get a chance to show more now that it appears Hines Ward is officially done in the Steel City.

Top Newcomers:
  • OG David DeCastro - This mauler from Stanford could be the next all-pro lineman to don the yellow and black. Scouts all over the league viewed him as definite first round talent so the Steelers have high hopes for him immediately.
  • OT Mike Adams - Give this guy a year or two and he could develop into a solid starter on Big Ben's blindside. The team believes it got a steal taking him in the second round.
  • NT Alameda Ta'amu - At 6'3" 348 lbs., Ta'amu brings some serious size to the table. Many teams let him slide to the fourth round because of his weight issues, which aided any rumors that he wasn't a hard worker. The Steelers will find out just how much he is willing to work very soon and if he puts in the time he could be the starter here for a long time after Hampton leaves.
  • WR Chris Rainey - His 5'9" 180 lbs frame is off-putting, but his legit sub 4.4 speed makes him very interesting. If he can play without fear and avoid injury he could become a dangerous weapon.
Optimistic Fan Says: "We'll see you in the Super Bowl!"

Reality Check: Well, the optimistic fans in Pittsburgh could be right. They have everything they need to win another championship, but it's a long season and a lot will happen between now and then. One or two key injuries have huge potential to derail their 2012 campaign. 

Projected 2012 Record: 11-5

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