The 100-Yard Spin aims to provide random insight into the uniquely American institution of football - one of the most complex and diverse team sports in the world.

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Monday, August 1, 2011

Overs and Unders: Early Predictions of the 2011 College Football Season

The Surprises:

South Florida - They are not a powerhouse program but have managed to field some high quality teams over the last five years. The defense looks stout with a strong D-line leading the way. DE Ryne Giddens could emerge as a pass-rushing force. LB's Sam Barrington and DeDe Lattimore look like All-Big East players as well. QB B.J. Daniels digressed in 2010 from his '09 form. He needs to be more consistent and produce more big plays that result in TD's. With RB Darrell Scott, a transfer from Colorado, and RB Demetrius Murray, a transfer from Auburn, to hand the ball off to a lot of pressure will be lifted this fall. Stout defense + reliable running game = lots of wins.
Penn State - The Nittany Lions have two young QB's that possess the raw talent to start for a lot of college teams in Robert Bolden and Mathew McGloin. The chances that one of these guys is going to emerge for them this fall are good. Even if they both struggle a bit Silas Redd is ready to lead the running game and the defense will be strong enough to keep them in most games. Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges are two of the best LB's in the Big Ten and both will play on Sundays.
Southern Miss -The Golden Eagles were 18th in the country in total offense last season and return seven starters on that side of the ball, including senior QB Austin Davis. Davis is set to become the all-time career passing leader in Hattiesburg. He has a very good group of receivers to play with too and sophomore RB Kendrick Hardy has the ability to become one the nation's leading rushers. They were also 13th in the country in run defense with five starters in the front seven returning. Sophomore CB Deron Wilson looks like he could eventually develop into a solid pro prospect. Do not be surprised if this team climbs into the top 20 at some point this fall and finishes the season with 11 wins.
Michigan - If you haven't heard about Denard Robinson you better take note. He averaged nearly seven yards per carry, rushed for 14 TD's, and threw for another 18 TD's on his way to becoming a 1st team All-American as a sophomore last season, and the only player to ever pass for 2,500 yards and rush for another 1500. His rushing attempts will mostly likely go down this season with the team moving back to a power running game, but he will get his fair share of big runs. WR, TE, and OL are all well-stocked with enough talent to compete with anybody. The defense on the other hand, was atrocious the last three years under Rich Rodriquez and defensive coordinator Greg Robinson. New HC Brady Hoke and DC Greg Mattison will get the unit in much better shape this year. The D-line looks like it could be very good this fall. DT Mike Martin is an All-American candidate and LB Kenny Demens could be the best player the team has had in the middle since 1996. The real deal-breaker though could be the return of senior CB Troy Woolfolk from a knee injury that forced him to miss the entire season last year. He could emerge as a leader, which is something the secondary desperately needs. Overall, we should see a different attitude whenever the Wolverine's defense takes the field this fall and that alone could make all the difference in the world.
Ohio St - After what this program has gone through in the last six months many folks are expecting the Buckeyes to fall off the map, but they have enough talent throughout the roster to still get 10 wins in another weak year for the Big Ten. RB's Rod Smith, Dan Herron, and Jaamal Berry can grind it out and take pressure off whoever plays QB. DeVier Posey is an All-Big Ten performer at WR and Mike Brewster is the top NFL prospect at center in the entire country. DE's Nathan Williams and John Simon will also play on Sundays very soon. The back seven of the defense is a bit green but it's full of top notch recruits from two or three years ago. It really wouldn't surprise me to see them win the Leaders Division and compete in the new conference championship game on December 3rd, while also grabbing a spot in a major bowl game.

The Disappointments:

Florida - This was one of the biggest groups of underachievers last season considering how much talent is on the team. QB John Brantley lacks confidence and he should be challenged by freshman Jeff Driskel at some point if he doesn't step it up as a leader. There is a ton of speed at RB and WR but the entire offense lacks any real toughness. The O-line is young too. CB Janoris Jenkins, who was one of the Gator's best defenders, was dismissed from the team for personal reasons. The D-line should be very good and Jelani Jenkins looks like the real deal at LB. However, with five sophomores probably starting the defense will be a little too green and I can see this team slipping to another five losses despite getting their toughest opponents (Alabama and Florida State) in the Swamp.
Texas - The roster wreaks of talent but they are fairly young and seemed to not be getting it last season while stumbling to a 5-7 record and no bowl appearance. QB Garrett Gilbert has the opportunity to gain some confidence and get his game going but he definitely needs to improve his play. Throwing only 10 TD's compared to 17 INT's just won't cut it in Austin. The defense could be very good with some great talent at LB, but they need to find a way to take over games if this team wants to get back to a bowl. With five sophomores with no starting experience on defense that will be a very tough task.
Michigan State - This is one of the best teams the Spartans have fielded talent-wise with a lot of good players returning from an 11-2 team, but after getting run over by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl (49-7) it is possible that the entire team's confidence has been hit. The real problem, however, exists in the schedule more than anything else as they have to travel to Notre Dame, Ohio St, Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. They also have Michigan and Wisconsin coming to town in back to back weeks. Another 11 win season will be very hard to accomplish and I have a feeling many fans in East Lansing will be severely disappointed this fall.
Iowa - It may not really be much of a surprise if the team loses five games again in 2010, considering they only return nine starters and the depth chart is littered with underclassmen. It appears that their schedule is not too bad with four of their five road games at Iowa St, Penn St, Minnesota, and Purdue, but an early season loss to Pitt at home could really damage the team's psyche, like what happened after the team got beat in a come-from-behind defeat at the hands of Northwester, who come to town on Oct. 15th. Michigan and Michigan St come on back to back weekends in November and the Hawkeye's final game is in Nebraska on Nov. 25th. Could the team miss the bowl season entirely this year? I wouldn't really bet against it.
Ohio St - Yes, one of the nation's biggest surprises could also be a big disappointment. In actuality, they have already let their school down by getting into trouble in the first place. It is hard for programs to adjust after losing a respective head coach in the manner that Ohio St lost Jim Tressel and it may surprise a lot of people if the Buckeyes finish in the top 25 at all, but for most Buckeye fans it would be disappointing for them to not win 11 games in any given season. Fans have gotten way too comfortable dominating competition week in and week out and one or two losses early in the season could really rattle Buckeye nation and cause a domino effect that carries them all the way to their first season of not winning the conference championship in over six years.