AFC South: What Can You Say about the Worst Division in Football?

Houston Texans

Key Returnees:

• Offense - So what if RB Arian Foster is now a vegan. Get that man some rice, beans, and hemp seeds pronto and he will be just fine. He and Ben Tate should combine for another 2,000 yards on the ground even if they become airatarians. QB Matt Schaub looks like the best QB in the AFC South now that Peyton Manning has left Indy. As long as he can stay healthy this offense should be high-flying. Luckily  the team has a young, capable backup in T.J. Yates, who came in for six games last year and completed 61% of his passes for over 900 yards. WR Andre Johnson is a potential all-pro every year and TE Owen Daniels should catch 60+ passes. The O-line gave up 33 sacks last year and they did just fine opening up running lanes despite not having any real standouts. At any rate, the offense was 13th in the league last season with Schaub missing lots of time so look for them to get back into the top 10 with him back. \
• Defense - This unit improved greatly last season with the addition of rookies J.J. Watt at DE and Brooks Reed at OLB. MLB Brian Cushing led the team with 114 tackles, four sacks, and two INT's while OLB/DE Connar Barwin paced the team with 11.5 sacks. Look for all four of these guys to be stars in Houston for the next few years. The team ranked third in the NFL in pass defense so it really doesn't matter that the Texans do not have any bona fide stars in the secondary. The whole groups is greater than the sum of all its parts. In other words: they play as a team.
• Special Teams - K Neil Rackers was fourth in field goals last year and the team ranked seventh in kick returns with a committee of guys, including starting S Daniel Manning. 

Secret Weapon: RB Ben Tate - All eyes will be on starter Arian Foster and his diet as the season opens but Tate has the size (5'11" 214 lbs.) and ability to take over games if needed. His 5.4 yards per carry is a whole yard more than Foster's and he added another six runs of 20 or more yards compared to Foster's seven, and he did it on 103 less carries.

Top Newcomer: C Ben Jones - It's not often an offensive lineman makes this list, especially a rookie fourth round center, but Jones has a good chance to come in and nail down a starting job. Not only that, but the Texans just simply didn't do much in free agency or add any real head-turning standouts through the draft. If all goes well, however, the Texans should have a top-end rushing attack and Jones will be right in the center of it all.

Optimistic Fan Says: "Now that Peyton Manning is out of the division we should have no problems taking the title and possibly getting a first round bye in the playoffs. With Schaub back we definitely have a shot at making it to the AFC Championship. Mario Williams who? Oh, that guy and his nine sacks per season are overrated. Good luck to him in Buffalo."

Reality Check: There simply is not enough proven depth at receiver to have another top ten passing offense and the loss of both Williams and LB Demeco Ryans on defense may just be too much to maintain a top five defense. However, a spot in the playoffs does seem likely as the rest of the division appears to be fairly weak.

Projected 2012 Record: 10-6

Indianapolis Colts

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB Donald Brown averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored five TD's in just 134 carries. WR's Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon combined for over 1900 yards and 10 TD's while Austin Collie also chipped in another 54 catches. The Colts have some decent young pieces to build an O-line around, including OT Anthony Castonzo.
• Defense - LB Pat Angerer totaled 143 tackles in 2011 and looks to be the future leader of this squad. DE Robert Mathis collected 9.5 sacks while fellow end Dwight Freeney chipped in another eight. Both guys are playing fairly well after 10 longs seasons in the NFL. 
• Special Teams - The Colts are one of the best teams in terms of kick and punt coverage.

Secret Weapon: None. 

Top Newcomer: QB Andrew Luck - The Colts won the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes and they drafted the guy who many believe is the best QB prospect to come out in the last two decades. I may not be as sold on him as most but he will be an upgrade over the guys they have now. He should be a decent pro.

Optimistic Fan Says: "We still suck with Luck!"

Reality Check: With no return game, no running game, and no beef up front on defense, the Colts will be lucky to win four games this year. I expect them to be picking in the top five again in next year's draft, which won't be so bad I guess. RB Marcus Lattimore, LB Manti Te'o, S Eric Reid, DT Johnathan Hankins, and WR Robert Woods will all be possibilities there.

4-12

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a handful for defenders to tackle and he racked up 1600 yards on the ground. QB Blaine Gabbert threw 12 TD's during his rookie campaign and the team gave him a vote of confidence by not trading for the polarizing, and home-town hero, Tim Tebow. TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Mike Thomas are nice options in the passing game who should see an increase in their productivity as Gabbert develops. The O-line is young but they've been getting better at blocking for the run. OT Eugene Monroe is one of the Jags best players.
• Defense - LB's Paul Posluzsny and Daryl Smith both made over 100 tackles and combined for 5.5 sacks three INT's for the NFL's sixth ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. S Dawan Landry was third on the team in tackles and also snatched two INT's. Overall, this unit doesn't have many stars but they hold up their individual assignments and flow to the ball well.
• Special Teams - The Jags also have great kick and punt coverage units, just like most other teams that spend more time on the field playing special teams than they do offense. 

Secret Weapon: RB Rashad Jennings - As a backup Jennings has a 5.4 yards per carry average over his three-year career. With MJD holding out for a new contract he should see his playing time increase significantly. If given the chance he could have some nice moments that lead to a big payday. So far he has been having a very good training camp.

Top Newcomers:

• WR Justin Blackmon - The team was in serious need of a number one receiver and they may have gotten just the guy they need in Blackmon. He has the size (6'1" 210), hands, and body control that is needed to play the part. The big downside is that it just might take him a year or two to get it all together, especially if Gabbert is slow to develop. If that happens, then QB Chad Henne could turn out to be the best addition to the team in end.
• DE Andre Branch - The defense is pretty solid and the only piece really missing is a game-changing pass-rusher. Branch may just have the skills to help fix that problem. 
• QB Chad Henne - Henne never really fit in down in Miami and the jury is still out on his potential as a professional passer. He has all the physical tools but seems to lack confidence, which leads to inconsistencies in his play. I don't know if Jacksonville is really the place to try to gain any confidence in one's self, but at least the expectations are not very high there.

Optimistic Fan Says: "With the Colts down we have one less team to worry about in our division and our running game and defense should be enough to put us in the mix for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs."

Reality Check: This is simply one of the most unwatchable teams in all of American sports at the moment. They definitely lack any real pizzazz to be considered prime-time material for the NFL. Gabbert looks more like backup material to me and Henne will probably start some games early this season. I'd be surprised if this team wins eight games and they'll probably only make it onto the national stage only once this year, unless something totally unexpected happens. At this point they are one of the top candidates of teams to move to L.A. if the league rules against more expansion, so maybe they have at least that to talk about.

Projected 2012 Record: 4-12

Tennessee Titans

Key Returnees:

• Offense - The big question is whether or not RB Chris Johnson can return to the form that allowed him to rush for 2,000 yards a couple years ago. When healthy and motivated he is unique talent that can outrun most defenders in the league. Backup Javon Ringer is decent but more talent is needed here for the future. 13-year veteran QB Matt Hasselback has enough in the tank to guide the offense through the season and second-year passer Jake Locker will look to improve his fundamentals. Locker did throw four TD's and no INT's in his rookie season so the team has high hopes for him. WR Nate Washington caught 74 passes last season for 1023 yards. He will be counted on to help guide an immature Kenny Britt and form perhaps the best receiver tandem in the division. Lavelle Hawkins and Damian Williams combined for 92 catches and six TD's as well so this should be a deep group as well. TE Jared Cook is hoping for more chances to improve upon his three TD's last season but with all the other talent around him it might be tough. The O-line was second in the league in sacks allowed last season so the time should be available for the QB's to find an open target.
• Defense - CB Jason McCourty led the team in tackles (103) and rookie DL Karl Klug led the team in sacks (7). Those numbers need to change. Corners should not be leading the team in anything but INT's. The organization is confident that things will improve though. This defense is very young but still wasn't all that bad last year. Rookie LB Akeem Ayers was third in tackles and also nabbed a pair of sacks while another rookie LB, Colin McCarthy, started the last half the season and finished with 68 tackles, two forced fumbles, and an INT. With a full year of off-season training this duo could be primed for a breakout season. 
• Special Teams - Third-year WR Marc Mariani helped the team form a stout return game last season and K Rob Bironas is one of the best in the AFC. Both guys could be pro-bowl material again in 2012. 

Secret Weapon: WR Damian Williams - Caught 45 passes and five TD's in his second season and looks to be the number two or three receiver on the depth chart this year. He is a smooth athlete with double-digit TD potential that could get forgotten about by defenders if other key offensive players show up on Sundays. 

Top Newcomers:

• WR Kendall Wright - Wright brings a lot of big-play potential to the table and should get an opportunity to contribute as a rookie, despite the fact that the team already has a lot of talent at the position. If he performs well the team might just cut ties with the troubled Britt altogether. 
• OG Steve Hutchinson - Although he might not be the player he once was, Hutch can still throw his weight around with the best of them. He joins an already well-knit unit that doesn't have any real standouts but gets the job done well on Sundays. The running game should improve upon its 31st ranking of last season.
• LB Zach Brown - More of an athlete than a ball-player at this point. IF he can get the mental aspect of the game together in his head his natural physical skills could take him and this defense to a new level of success. Might be too much of an underachiever but was worth the risk in the second round of the draft.
• DT Mike Martin - A quick, strong athlete that fits the mold in Tennessee. He has legit 4.9 speed, can bench 400 + lbs, and was a leader on an 11-2 Michigan team. He might not be a starter in the NFL this year but he should be a guy that's heavily involved in the rotation and a steady presence in the locker room.

Optimistic Fan Says: "There's no reason to think that this team can't win the division and get a first round bye in the playoffs."

Reality Check: This team looks like a 9-7 team on paper but the talent is there to put together a big season. If Chris Johnson can get a least 1200 yards on the ground and the defense matures a little more then this team could win the division. They will benefit from playing in one of the worst divisions in football.

Projected 2012 Record 11-5