Buffalo Bills
Key Returnees:
- Offense - QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is smart and savvy but nothing flashy. He should continue to be a steady presence for the Bills. RB's Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both averaged over 5.0 yards per carry last season and they are beginning to compliment each other well in all phases of the game.WR Steve Johnson is a legitimate number one target in the passing game and David Nelson played well in his first season as a starter. TE Scott Chandler is normally a blocker but he managed to grab 38 receptions in his first season as a starter as well. They should all improve. The O-line lead the NFL in sacks allowed (23) and it should continue to improve with the addition of a few nice-looking rookies.
- Defense - The Bills were a bit green last season with MLB Nick Barnett playing his first season outside of Green Bay and DT Marcel Dareus fresh out of college. Both played very well and the unit should improve around them. The entire unit is stacked with returning veterans and young talent to help take on NFL passing games, including high-prized free agent DE Mario Williams and four-year veteran DB Jairus Byrd.
- Special Teams - Well, there is no masking it as the Bills seriously stink on special teams.
Top Newcomers:
- DE/OLB Mario Williams - There was a lot of hype over this free agent signing after Williams collected five sacks in five games before getting injured in Houston last season. He should fit right in as a pass-rusher in the Bills' defensive scheme, and if he stays healthy he has 15 sack per season potential.
- OG Cordy Glenn - The big Georgia Bulldog looks to have all the tools to become an elite guard in the NFL. The Bills hope he can help open holes for the running backs.
- CB Stephon Gilmore - The Bills' number one draft pick comes in looking to improve the pass defense. In today's NFL you need to load up on these types of cover guys. He doesn't even need to start. If he can help the team field three or four quality corners in nickel and dime packages then he will have been worth the pick.
Reality Check: As long as Tom Brady is in New England it is hard to imagine the Bills taking the division crown any time soon. While the team should be competitive it is highly unlikely they win more than 10 games or win a playoff game if they make it.
Projected 2012 Record: 10-6
Miami Dolphins
- Offense - RB Reggie Bush rushed for 1,000 yards and caught 43 passes. He performed better than many expected and he will get a chance to carry this offense. Rookie Daniel Thomas showed some promise as well and the Dolphins ranked 11th in the league in rushing last season. WR's Brian Hartline and Devon Bess are young players that could both be on the verge of breakout seasons. Hartline averaged 15.7 yards per catch, which shows that the guy is capable of making plays. TE Anthony Fasano is a solid, if unspectacular, player that is more of a jack-of-all trades type. He doesn't do anything special but he can score a half dozen TD's for a team in any given year. It is hard to believe that four-time pro-bowl left tackle Jake Long may just be reaching his prime. Before it's all over Long may go down as one of the best all-time. C/G Mike Pouncey also looks like he will be worth the first round pick the team spent on him last year. Returning veteran QB Matt Moore also completed over 60% of his passes and delivered some monster performances at Kansas City and twice against Buffalo last season. His experience is a valuable asset to the team.
- Defense - The Dolphins were third in the league against the run last season. SS Yeremiah Bell, LB Kevin Burnett, and LB Karlos Dansby all had over 100 tackles and 13 different players registered a sack. LB Cameron Wake led the team in sacks with 8.5 and DE Jared Odrick came on strong in his second season to get six. Sean Smith and Vontae Davis are a solid set of do-it-all-type starting CB's.
- Special Teams - K Dan Carpenter led the 10th ranked kicking units and the Dolphins were second in the league in field goals. The team also ranked 13th in both punting and kick returns.
Secret Weapon: RB Steve Slaton - This guy had a 1200 yard season as rookie in 2008 but has dropped off the map ever since. He was picked up by the Dolphins off waivers last September and the Miami coaches seem to like him. He may get used quite a bit to change the pace and catch defenses off guard. He could just as easily be cut before the season starts though (sorry, the pessimist came out).
Top Newcomers:
- QB Ryan Tannehill - The rookie from Texas A & M will get a year to wrap his head around the pro game but the team is counting on him being a starter eventually. He is a good athlete that could develop into a Brett Favre-type of gunslinger for the Dolphins.
- OT Jonathan Martin - Many people thought Martin was worthy of a first round pick but he fell to the Dolphins in the second round. If Martin can nail down a starting job and help hold the line for whoever is playing QB then this offense should begin to click sooner rather than later.
Optimistic Fan Says: "The running game will be one of the best in the AFC so the transition from the Big 12 to the NFL should be made a little easier for Tannehill. I believe he has a chance to put up Cam Newton-like numbers if some receivers step up and a winning record is not out of the question, especially when you consider how good the defense and special teams have been in recent years."
Reality Check: If the Dolphins want any chance of making a strong run for the playoffs in 2012 they will need a good season from somebody at QB. It doesn't need to be flashy. That is why Brandon Marshall is gone. The formula is very simple: Rush for 2,000 yards + Hold opponents to 1500 rushing yards = winning football. A nine-win season is reasonable to consider, and I believe they can be a surprise team, but more than that would be asking for a real miracle at this point.
Projected 2012 Record: 5-11
New England Patriots
Key Returnees
Secret Weapon: RB Stevan Ridley - Averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a rookie last year and should put his 5'11" 220 lbs frame to good use this season as the offense attempts to uncover more diamonds in the rough. If he develops a well-rounded game he could be a very useful cog in the system.Reality Check: If the Dolphins want any chance of making a strong run for the playoffs in 2012 they will need a good season from somebody at QB. It doesn't need to be flashy. That is why Brandon Marshall is gone. The formula is very simple: Rush for 2,000 yards + Hold opponents to 1500 rushing yards = winning football. A nine-win season is reasonable to consider, and I believe they can be a surprise team, but more than that would be asking for a real miracle at this point.
Projected 2012 Record: 5-11
New England Patriots
Key Returnees
- Offense - Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady... That is all we really need to know about New England. The guy has simply become one of the greatest passers of all-time and he can lead a roster full of backup material to the Super Bowl on a regular basis. TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are breaking records and redefining how the position is played in the NFL. Gronk is a mismatch just waiting to happen for defenses. WR Wes Welker is a workhorse on the outside. The O-line is a good all-around group of guys that really don't stand out. OG Logan Mankins could play for anybody though.
- Defense - NT Vince Woolfork is the best in the business at plugging up the interior of the line and LB Jerod Mayo will continue be the team's top tackler for the foreseeable future. Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty are decent corners that make a lot of tackles and 11-year DE Andre Carter had a second-coming last season with 10 sacks. There is a decent mixture of young, talented players and experienced vets to produce a formidable defensive unit. As we saw last season, however, they don't need to be that good to get to the Super Bowl.
- Special Teams - Who cares? Just get Brady back on the field and everything will be fine.
Top Newcomers:
- DE/OLB Chandler Jones - Could immediately help the pass-rush, which is a huge sore spot for the Patriots. Chandlers dimensions (6'6" 260 lbs.) and athleticism might provide the Pats with some big plays.
- LB Dont'a Hightower - One of the best defenders in college football on a great college defense should be a difference-maker. He should be a starter on day one.
- TE Visanthe Shiancoe - Not sure what the Pats will do with Shiancoe but at worst he gives them the best third-string TE in the league and he is probably the fourth or fifth best receiver on the entire roster. Will they go with three TE sets in 2012? Why not?
- LB Bobby Carpenter - Was a decent performer in Detroit the last few seasons and steps into a good position in New England. Even if he doesn't start he gives the team some flexibility and much-needed depth.
Optimistic Fan Says: "There's simply no reason to believe that we will not be back in the Super Bowl again this year."
Reality Check: When you look at New England's roster on paper they really do not look like much. However, the odds of them actually making it back to the Super Bowl is better than any other team in the league. That of course would drastically change if something were to happen to Tom Brady. We shall assume he will stay as healthy as usual and they will be in the hunt once again come January.
Projected 2012 Record: 11-5
New York Jets
Key Returnees:
- Offense - Despite all the criticism QB Mark Sanchez wasn't horrible last season while posting nearly 3500 yards and 26 TD's. TE Dustin Keller led the team in receptions, which actually says a lot more about the players on the outside rather than Keller himself. Don't get me wrong, as I think he's a very good player. I just don't think he should be leading any teams in catches. Santonio Holmes led the wide-outs with 51 catches and eight TD's. Third-year RB Shonn Greene has seen his production increase each year. He will continue to churn out some tough yardage for the Jets. C Nick Mangold and LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson are nice cornerstones to build an O-line around as well.
- Defense - Ranked number five in the NFL in 2011 and has consistently been one of the best over the last several years. S Eric Smith, ILB David Harris, LB Bart Scott, and OLB/DE Calvin Pace all chipped in at least 54 tackles and 2.5 sacks a piece. Harris, a Michigan alum, may be the best of the bunch with 312 tackles and 13.5 sacks over the last three seasons. He also had four INT's last season with one pick-six. Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Kyle Wilson form a sound trio of corners to help against the likes of the New England Patriots. DE Mohammed Wilkerson looks like he was worth the first round pick from a year ago.
- Special Teams - RB/KR Joe McKnight - has turned into a nice player. He averaged 31.6 yards per return last season and brought one back for six. The team was also 11th in the league in punting.
Secret Weapon: RB Joe McKnight - All eyes will be on him when he's returning kicks but there might be enough of a distraction from other guys on offense to allow him to go unchecked. He has some great skills but hasn't been able to put it together with the starting offense yet. With the lack of depth on the roster and the departure of LaDainian Tomlinson one can only assume that McKnight will get more looks in the backfield.
Top Newcomers:
- QB Tim Tebow - Oh god, as if we weren't hearing enough about Tebow already he had to get traded to the headline hungry Jets. Is it a match made in heaven or hell? Only time will tell. I believe he will have his moments, but I also believe this will be the year that everyone excepts the fact that he is not a good QB.
- DE Quinton Coples - The team is depending on him to come in and contribute immediately. The more pressure they can muster up against opposing offenses the better it will for everybody.
- WR Stephen Hill - This kid will need some work before he is a capable starter in this league but he possesses some extreme physical ability. With the right coaching he could be stellar in three to four years.
Optimistic Fan Says: "Our running game and defense alone will be good enough to get us 10 wins. Tebow and Sachez will be just fine splitting time and we will win the division and finally get into the Super Bowl. J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! "
Reality Check: We've heard more hype about this team over the last several years only to see them repeatedly fall flat on their faces. I'm just not convinced they have two good teams in New York. It seems the Jets have a lot of good pieces to build a nice offense around but there isn't much depth anywhere. Tim Tebow and another top five defense won't be enough to get them back into the playoffs this year.
Projected 2012 Record: 7-9
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