AFC West: A Division Full of Paper Champs

Denver Broncos

Key Returnees

• Offense - 10-year veteran running back Willis McGahee rushed for 1,200 yards last season and has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over the course of his career. Backups Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno combined for 900 yards of offense and the O-line seems well adept at run-blocking as the team led the entire league in 2011. WR's Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker return after each player broke out last season. Their stats weren't eye-popping but that speaks more about the lack of any real passer in the pocket than their ability to get open and catch passes. Do not be surprised if both guys catch 70+ balls annually for the next several seasons. 
• Defense - The team has a nice squad of pass-rushers in LB's Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, D.J. Williams, Ryan McBean, and Robert Ayers. Look for the unit to improve upon the 41 sacks they collectively mustered last season.
• Special Teams - The Broncos were the best punting team in the NFL in 2011. For some reason that just doesn't seem like the type of thing you want to be known for in the NFL. 

Secret Weapons: TE's Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen - Although neither guy is a top-flight player, both Tamme and Dreesen are just good enough to take advantage of the attention that will be focused on the other elements of the offense. Tamme should be good for 60 receptions and Dreesen has shown a nose for the endzone with six TD's on just 28 catches last season. If anybody will utilize these guys to the fullest it will be Peyton Manning.

Top Newcomers:

• QB Peyton Manning - Duh! This guy legitimizes the Bronco's chances of making the playoffs again and other players around him, such as Thomas and Decker, will become better players. And I really don't care what the Tebowers think either.
• TE's Tamme and Dreesen - See above.
• WR Andre Caldwell - The team needs somebody to step up and claim the job as the third option at the position. Caldwell has enough ability and experience necessary to fill the void.
• S Jim Leonhard - Albeit a small defender (5'8" 188 lbs), Leonhard makes up for lack of size with hard work and solid instincts. He should help improve the depth at safety and on special teams coverage units.

Optimistic Fan Says: "Maybe getting rid of Tebow is the best thing that could've happened to the Broncos. He was not, and never will be, a good NFL passer and he was way too polarizing of a figure to get us where we want to go as a team. The addition of Manning makes us more legitimate and both Decker and Thomas should become more highly coveted fantasy players with him at the helm. If this team doesn't win 10 games and compete for a spot in the AFC Championship game this season I will be surprised."

Reality Check: The D-line needs some more work and there is a serious lack of depth at receiver, in the secondary, and at running back. If the aging McGahee goes down with injury it's hard to imagine the team repeating it's magical late-season run. Also, if the team begins to struggle early we could hear chants of "We want Tebow!"

Projected 2012 Record: 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB Jamaal Charles comes back from injury to hopefully give the running game a boost. He rushed for 1467 yards in 2010 and he should be in prime shape come the start of the season. Dexter McCluster is a bit small but he is a great option either rushing or receiving out of the backfield. WR Dwayne Bowe is a great first option in the passing game while Steve Breaston is a nice number two. Last year's first round pick, WR Jonathan Baldwin, should improve in his second season after a quiet rookie campaign. QB Matt Cassel also returns from a broken hand injury he suffered in week 10 last season. He has 11,699 yards and 76 TD's on his career while serving mostly as a backup in New England. The O-line is very young across the board but they only gave up 34 sacks. Look for them to start clicking more as the season progresses.
• Defense - S Eric Berry also returns after missing the entire season with an injury. He should be a team leader on defense after having a phenomenal rookie season the year before. DE/OLB Tamba Hali is a bona fide star after breaking the 12-sack mark two years in a row. LB Derrick Johnson once again led the team in sacks while chipping in two sacks and two INT's as well. CB Brandon Flowers returns after grabbing four INT's to lead the team. Rookie LB Justin Houston was a nice surprise with 5.5 sacks in his first NFL season. Overall, this entire unit ranked 14th in yards allowed and they have tried to add some more young pieces in the last few drafts. A top-10 ranking could come as soon as this year.
• Special Teams - Ryan Succop is a nice kicker and P Dustin Colquitt helped the team rank seventh in the league in punting.

Secret Weapon: CB/KR Javier Arenas - Although he is not ultra flashy, Arenas can cover well and should be in line to take over for the departed Brandon Carr. In his first two 31 games as a pro Arenas has collected 76 tackles, four sacks, two INT's, and over 700 return yards. If he can improve while stepping up into a bigger role on defense he could become a household name in Kansas City.

Top Newcomers:

• NT Dontari Poe - The 6'5" 350 lbs Poe could be just the monster of a man this team needs to help run the 3-4 defense. He didn't really light it up at Memphis but he won't be asked to in KC either. All he needs to do is occupy a ton of space and hold the line. Although, that job is easier said than done in the NFL.
• RB Peyton Hillis - After slumping last season Hillis will look to join the rotation in KC. With his bruising style and career 4.2 yards per carry average he should be a fine compliment to Charles as the Chiefs will look to run the ball at their division rivals.

Optimistic Fan Says: "We won this division two years ago and we were the only team to beat Green Bay in the regular season last year. With Charles and Berry back from injury our team gets a huge boost in production on both sides of the ball. I bet we will win 11 games and put ourselves in position to make a run deep into the playoffs."

Reality Check: It's hard to argue that the Chiefs do not have the talent to make the playoffs, because they do. Matt Cassel may not be among the top 20 starters in the league but he should be good enough to help keep defenses honest. Just don't expect him to carry the team on his shoulders. A nine or ten win season wouldn't really surprise anybody but winning the division outright will be tough as the AFC West got a little stronger this off-season.

Projected 2012 Record: 8-8

Oakland Raiders

Key Returnees:

• Offense - The Raiders were ninth in the NFL in total offense. RB Darren McFadden returns to find himself as the lone man in the backfield. He has the ability to push for 2,000 all-purpose yards now that the job is solely his. QB Carson Palmer also returns to find himself the unchallenged starter. He should provide a steadier hand at the wheel than this offense has seen in a while. WR Darius Heyward-Bey might be on the verge of a huge breakout season after nabbing a career high 64 receptions. He and position-mate Jacoby Ford are two of the fastest players in the league that Palmer will look to utilize whenever possible. The O-line ranked fourth in the league in sacks allowed despite being relatively young. Could there be big things to come with this group very soon?
• Defense - S Tyvon Branch, LB Rolando McClain, and S Matt Giordano were the team's top three tacklers and they all return. McClain looks like he could be all-pro material in the middle. The D-line should be a tough unit with all of last year's top performers returning, including DT Richard Seymour. LB Aaron Curry also returns after pumping some new life into his career in Oakland.
• Special Teams - K Sebastian Janikowski and P Shane Lechler are two of the best at what they do.

Secret Weapon: WR Jacoby Ford - He hasn't collected a ton of catches over his first two years in the league but his 17 yards per catch average is a fine example of what he is capable of doing. He was the fastest player coming out of college three years ago and could have a breakout season very soon.

Top Newcomers: 

• OG Tony Bergstrom - The Raiders keep finding nice pieces to the O-line puzzle in the middle rounds of the draft. Bergstrom should continue that trend as he could be a starter by the end of the season.
• WR Juron Criner - There wasn't really much to talk about in terms of the draft in Oakland, but Criner could fly under the radar and develop into a solid player over the next few seasons.

Optimistic Fan Says: "Come into our house and you are most likely going to find yourself in a deep, dark world of shit my friend! We are Raider nation and we take our role as league hooligans very seriously. Playoffs here we come!! GO RAIDERS!!! 

Reality Check: Although the Raiders' organization should take a better direction now that the shadow of Al Davis is not holding the team back from moving forward into the modern football era, it's hard to imagine all the stars aligning and making a trip to the playoffs possible this year. Does Oakland have a shot at the postseason? Yes. Will they make it? Probably not.

Projected 2012 Record: 7-9

San Diego Chargers

Key Returnees:

• Offense - QB Phillip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates have arguably been two of the best players at their respective positions over the last several seasons. Both guys appear to be healthy and poised for good season. RB Ryan Mathews stepped up to the plate and delivered last year as well with 4.9 yards per carry and 50 catches for 455 yards. WR Malcolm Floyd also returns his career 18 yards per catch average. The O-line allowed only 30 sacks and they should help the team improve its rushing game. Altogether, there's enough returning to field another solid offense. 
• Defense - S Eric Weddle played like an all-pro last season, placing third on the team in tackles and nabbing seven INT's. He spearheads a decent secondary that also includes veteran CB's Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason. The front seven has got a lot of young pieces that possess a lot of potential. LB's Donald Butler and Antwan Barnes and D-linemen Cam Thomas and Antonio Garay all appear to have bright futures ahead of them in the NFL.
• Special Teams - The Chargers are at least average in most major special teams categories. They were sixth in the league in kick returns. 

Secret Weapon: WR Eddie Royal - Does anybody remember this guy's rookie year in Denver when he had Jay Cutler throwing to him? Yeah, he had 91 catches for 980 yards! Look for him to regain that form get over 100 targets from Rivers this year as the Chargers second or third receiver. He could very well lead the team in catches by the time it's all over.

Top Newcomers:

• WR Robert Meachem - The forgotten man in the Saints offense in recent years, Meachem just couldn't get ahead of other guys or garner the complete confidence of QB Drew Brees. Maybe things will be different for him in San Diego.
• WR Eddie Royal - See above.
• FB LeRon McClain - So you want to toughen up your offense a bit? Well, bringing in arguably one of the best all-around blocking backs in the league should help. McClain has the size and ability to help move the chains.
• LB/DE Melvin Ingram - Drafted in the first round to bolster the outside pass-rush and seal off the edge against the run, Ingram could be just what the Dr. ordered in San Diego. However, he could just as likely be a bust. Only time will tell and I suspect it will be a year or two before we find out just what kind of player he is.
• DL Kendall Reyes - Another big (6'4" 300 lbs) body to plug in up front. He could be a big factor for the team down the road.

Optimistic Fan Says: "We've been paper champs for far too long. This offense is set to explode for about 7,000 yards this season and the defense will at least be good enough to not blow any games. A 12-4 season seems about right!"

Reality Check: Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City all got a little better this past off-season and this division should be competitive and fun to watch in 2012. The stage could be set for one of these teams to rip off a bunch of wins and make a run deep in the playoffs, but history, along with my gut, tells me that they won't get too far.

Projected 2012 Record: 11-5