NFC West: It's Hard to be Optimistic

Arizona Cardinals

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB Beanie Wells and RB Larod Stephens-Howling both are young backs that averaged over 4.0 yards per carry last season, and WR Larry Fitzgerald is simply one of the best players in the league no matter who is throwing the ball. He is complimented by fellow wide-outs Early Doucet and Andre Roberts, who each caught 50-plus balls last season, so there is no shortage of veteran targets. QB's John Skelton and  Kevin Kolb could be battling it out for the starting position and both have starting experience. Lots of starters also return on the O-line to protect whoever is rushing or dropping back to pass.
• Defense - LB Daryl Washington is the returning team leader in tackles and he also contributed five sacks last season. DL Calais Campbell is a monster of a human-being at 6'8", 300 lbs. He returns after leading the team in sacks (8) last season, as does DE Sam Acho after being second in sacks (7). DB Richard Marshall led the team in INT's and was second on the team in tackles. The team will love having his game back. QB's avoid throwing towards CB Patrick Peterson whenever possible out of fear of a pick-six. SS Adrian Wilson and DT Darnell Docket have been leaders on the team for a while and each have at least one more good year out of them.
• Special Teams - Patrick Peterson returned four punts for TD's and averaged over 15 yards per return last season, which tells you why opposing teams try to stay away from him at all costs. The Cardinals were also 5th in the NFL in punting.

Secret Weapon: RB Ryan Williams - After being selected in the second round and looking good in the early portion of training camp, the young ball-carrier from Virginia Tech suffered a season-ending knee injury. He is still working to recover but he could be the best of the bunch and may be the starter before mid-season, depending how the rehab goes. At any rate, the combination of Williams, Wells, and Stephens-Howling could save the day for whoever plays QB.

Top Newcomers:

• WR Michael Floyd - After being selected by the team high in the first round he needs utilize his frame (6'3", 225 lbs) and become a reliable target in the red zone to take pressure off Fitzgerald. Floyd has a rare opportunity to play opposite a modern great and he seems to have the talent to compete. He should help make the QB's job a bit easier overall as well.

Optimistic Fan Says: "This team has some youth at some key positions but there are some big-time players on both sides of the ball, including all-pros Fitzgerald and Peterson. Both Skelton and Kolb appear up to the challenge to deliver the ball to a slew of targets on the outside while handing off to a deep, young group of running backs. With last year's growing pains under their belts the Cardinals should be primed to knock San Francisco out of the Division's top spot. After all, the Card's QB situation is no worse than the Rams, Seahawks, or the 49ers at this point, so it is realistically anybody's crown for the taking in the NFC West."

Reality Check: This roster looks like an 8-8 team that will most-likely miss the playoffs in 2012. There are simply too many "ifs" that would have to pan out in order for this team to make a splash any time soon, so don't bet on them. Not having an established signal-caller at the helm of the offense instantly puts them at a disadvantage in every non-division match-up.

Projected 2012 Record: 6-10

San Fransisco 49ers

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB's Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter both return after combining for 1684 rushing yards and 10 TD's. WR Michael Crabtree seems to be developing into solid pro as he caught 72 passes for 874 yards, which led the team. TE Vernon Davis churned out another good season with 67 catches and six TD's. There are several young players on the O-line that are loaded with potential. Though struggled a little bit throughout the season last year but the hopes are high that they will improve greatly. The biggest reason for the 49ers offensive success last season was the turnaround of QB Alex Smith's play. He didn't throw for a ton of yards but he completed 61% of his passes for 17 TD's and only five INT's. The team doesn't expect him to improve too much on those numbers as long as the turnovers are down.
• Defense - The number one defense in the NFL against the run last year, this defense hits people early, often, and with extreme prejudice. If you are wearing different colors and you have the ball in your hands you may want to protect yourself. LB's NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis have established themselves as the team's top two tacklers and second year OLB/DE Aldon Smith will try to improve his overall game after posting 14 sacks as a rookie. Ahmad Brooks patrols the field on the other side and he also chipped in seven sacks. S Dashon Goldson was third in tackles and first in INT's for San Fran with six picks. Fellow DB Donte Whitner was fourth in tackles and also chipped in two picks. DE Justin Smith brings a lot of toughness and a good all-around game up front and line-mate Ray McDonald is beginning to play more like he did in college at Florida. 
• Special Teams - The '9ers were first in field goals, first in kick returns, and ranked in the top 10 in both kicking and punt coverage, which tells you a lot more about how this team got where it did last year.

Secret Weapon: WR A.J. Jenkins - The rookie first round pick out of Illinois wasn't projected to be taken so high by most analysts but the staff in San Fran saw something they loved about him. He has had a decent preseason but is currently behind several players all vying for playing time. He will get lost in the shuffle for now but could emerge as a huge threat as the season progresses. Eventually, the team sees him as a starting caliber player or they wouldn't have taken him so high.

Top Newcomers: 

• RB Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs is well-versed in the art of playing in a loaded backfield. He's the type of guy that could be quiet throughout the season while Gore and Hunter get most of the reps only to emerge in January to put up some big games in the playoffs.
• WR Mario Manningham - Was one of Eli Manning's favorite targets over the last few years and came up with a big catch to help seal the Super Bowl win against the Patriots just seven months ago. He helps bring experience to a group that needs it.
• WR Randy Moss - Was not brought in to be a starter, just to help push the defense down-field and open things up for the offense a few times per game.
• RB LaMichael James - One of the fastest backs in college now becomes one of the fastest in the NFL. James will probably be counted on to play special teams and get 3-5 offensive touches per game. His fantasy value will be nothing but his presence alone could help open up the field more.

Optimistic Fan Says: "Last year we busted our cherry and grew up. This year it's time to put the women and children to bed and go looking for dinner! In other words, it's Super Bowl or bust!!"

Reality Check: Can you bet on Coach Jim Harbaugh to repeat his magic from last season when they took the entire league by surprise? I don't think so. Smith is still too much of a question mark at QB and there just isn't enough balls to go around to all the talented backs. Just having that new pool of talent at receiver isn't enough to improve the offense. You actually have to get the ball distributed into all their hands in order for them to truly make an impact. If Smith falters early at all fans will turn on him.

Projected 2012 Record: 10-6

Seattle Seahawks

Key Returnees:

• Offense - Marshawn Lynch and Leon Washington provide a solid tandem in Seattle's backfield. Lynch had over 1200 rushing yards and scored 12 TD's while Washington averaged nearly five yards per carry. Both will be expected to contribute just as much this season. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Ben Obomanu each caught at least 32 passes and two TD's in 2011. Each one of those guys will be expected to improve upon their respective stats, especially with improved QB play. The team has spent a few high draft picks on linemen over the last few years, and some gems are starting to surface, but their production has been a bit lacking overall. C Max Unger and LT Russell Okung could each become leaders on this team.
• Defense - After placing ninth in the NFL in yards allowed last season, the pressure will be on the defense to get the team over the hump and back into the playoffs. 11 out of the Seahawk's top 12 tacklers from last year return, including FS Earl Thomas, SS Kam Chancellor, LB K.J. Wright, and CB Richard Sherman. All four of these guys are under 25 years of age and should be big contributors on defense in the years to come. 
• Special Teams - There are no real weaknesses in this phase of the game as the Seahawks are consistently in the top half of all special teams categories. Leon Washington has been one of the best return men in the game for several years now.

Secret Weapon: WR Doug Baldwin - He is currently fifth on the depth chart at the position so nobody will probably remember that he led the team with 51 catches for 788 yards and four TD's as a rookie. Although he might get less targets in 2012, with improved QB play and better depth at WR Baldwin should be able to do some great things when given the opportunity.

Top Newcomers: 

• QB Russell Wilson - The rookie from Wisconsin won the job during the preseason and if he can look that good during the preseason the team could push for a division crown.
• LB Bobby Wagner - The rookie from Utah State will be the starter in the middle. He should be solid if unspectacular.
• QB Matt Flynn - The top backup in Green Bay now becomes the top backup in Seattle after receiving a big contract in free agency. If Wilson struggles Flynn will get his chance to shine.
• OLB/DE Bruce Irvin - The surprise pick of the first round this past April has some serious speed and pass-rush skills that the team will try to tap into on third downs.
• RB Robert Turbin - Another good preseason performer out of Utah State that will get opportunities to make plays come game day. Expect him to get anywhere between a half dozen to a dozen touches per game later in the season. If Lynch gets hurt he should get the starting nod.
• DT Jason Jones - Not a top-end defender but could be a nice brick in the wall.
• WR Braylon Edwards - Although he's not the player he once was in Cleveland, Edwards could surprise a lot of defenders as the first or second option off the bench. The team could really use his size in the redzone. 

Optimistic Fan Says: "They will surprise everybody and win the division. Just email me, Andrew Graham, at andrew.graham.792@facebook.com and I will tell you everything there is to know that is good about my beloved Seahawks. I have been a life-long fan even though I've never stepped foot in Seattle."

Reality Check: This is one of the hardest teams to predict as the running game and defense is enough to challenge most teams throughout the season, but the play at QB is a huge question mark at this point. If Wilson or Flynn can turn out a banner year the 'Hawks could just take over as division champs. The chances of that happening would be slim in most divisions, but this is the NFC West: where champions don't need winning records. 

Projected 2012 Record: 8-8

St Louis Rams

Key Returnees:

• Offense - QB Sam Bradford has had two up and down seasons since being the first player taken overall in 2010. The next two years should give us a clearer picture of what type of player he will become. RB Steven Jackson returns for his umpteenth season as the team's top offensive player. He should get another 1100 yards on the ground and a half dozen TD's. He will probably tack on another 40 catches to his professional resume as well. WR Danny Amendola returns after missing most of last season due to injury and he should quickly reestablish himself as Bradford's favorite target. 
• Defense - LB James Laurinaitis will probably lead this team in tackles for the next decade and provide solid leadership on and off the field. DE Chris Long is coming around after posting 13 sacks last season and he should be a regular contributor for a while as well. Last year's top pick, DE Robert Quinn, made five sacks as well. This is a unit loaded with young, hungry players. They will improve.
• Special Teams - The Rams specialized in punting last season, ranking second in the NFL.

Secret Weapon: None

Top Newcomers:

• CB Janoris Jenkins - The problematic Jenkins could turn out to be the real steal of the draft. He might be the most skilled coverman to come out of college in 2012 and should be a starter right away for the Rams.
• WR Steve Smith - He has averaged about 46 catches per year in his five years in the league and should help improve the depth at the position.
• CB Cortland Finnegan - A guy that Coach Jeff Fisher knows he can rely on to be where he needs to be on defense and make tackles after spending several seasons with him in Tennessee.
• RB Isaiah Pead - Will immediately serve as Jackson's backup and should get plenty of action on special teams. He appears to have some nice quickness and football instincts.

Optimistic Fan Says: "I'll believe it when I see it."

Reality Check: It may be hard to be optimistic in St Louis but Fisher is one of the best coaches in football. There are some nice young pieces mixed in with some quality veterans that could turn things around in a hurry. However, the O-line is horrific, the receivers lack big-play potential, and there enough holes on defense to let good offense get too far ahead. I'd say there's a slim chance of playoffs but the team should be more competitive in relatively weak division. 

Projected 2012 Record: 7-9

AFC West: A Division Full of Paper Champs

Denver Broncos

Key Returnees

• Offense - 10-year veteran running back Willis McGahee rushed for 1,200 yards last season and has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over the course of his career. Backups Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno combined for 900 yards of offense and the O-line seems well adept at run-blocking as the team led the entire league in 2011. WR's Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker return after each player broke out last season. Their stats weren't eye-popping but that speaks more about the lack of any real passer in the pocket than their ability to get open and catch passes. Do not be surprised if both guys catch 70+ balls annually for the next several seasons. 
• Defense - The team has a nice squad of pass-rushers in LB's Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, D.J. Williams, Ryan McBean, and Robert Ayers. Look for the unit to improve upon the 41 sacks they collectively mustered last season.
• Special Teams - The Broncos were the best punting team in the NFL in 2011. For some reason that just doesn't seem like the type of thing you want to be known for in the NFL. 

Secret Weapons: TE's Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen - Although neither guy is a top-flight player, both Tamme and Dreesen are just good enough to take advantage of the attention that will be focused on the other elements of the offense. Tamme should be good for 60 receptions and Dreesen has shown a nose for the endzone with six TD's on just 28 catches last season. If anybody will utilize these guys to the fullest it will be Peyton Manning.

Top Newcomers:

• QB Peyton Manning - Duh! This guy legitimizes the Bronco's chances of making the playoffs again and other players around him, such as Thomas and Decker, will become better players. And I really don't care what the Tebowers think either.
• TE's Tamme and Dreesen - See above.
• WR Andre Caldwell - The team needs somebody to step up and claim the job as the third option at the position. Caldwell has enough ability and experience necessary to fill the void.
• S Jim Leonhard - Albeit a small defender (5'8" 188 lbs), Leonhard makes up for lack of size with hard work and solid instincts. He should help improve the depth at safety and on special teams coverage units.

Optimistic Fan Says: "Maybe getting rid of Tebow is the best thing that could've happened to the Broncos. He was not, and never will be, a good NFL passer and he was way too polarizing of a figure to get us where we want to go as a team. The addition of Manning makes us more legitimate and both Decker and Thomas should become more highly coveted fantasy players with him at the helm. If this team doesn't win 10 games and compete for a spot in the AFC Championship game this season I will be surprised."

Reality Check: The D-line needs some more work and there is a serious lack of depth at receiver, in the secondary, and at running back. If the aging McGahee goes down with injury it's hard to imagine the team repeating it's magical late-season run. Also, if the team begins to struggle early we could hear chants of "We want Tebow!"

Projected 2012 Record: 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB Jamaal Charles comes back from injury to hopefully give the running game a boost. He rushed for 1467 yards in 2010 and he should be in prime shape come the start of the season. Dexter McCluster is a bit small but he is a great option either rushing or receiving out of the backfield. WR Dwayne Bowe is a great first option in the passing game while Steve Breaston is a nice number two. Last year's first round pick, WR Jonathan Baldwin, should improve in his second season after a quiet rookie campaign. QB Matt Cassel also returns from a broken hand injury he suffered in week 10 last season. He has 11,699 yards and 76 TD's on his career while serving mostly as a backup in New England. The O-line is very young across the board but they only gave up 34 sacks. Look for them to start clicking more as the season progresses.
• Defense - S Eric Berry also returns after missing the entire season with an injury. He should be a team leader on defense after having a phenomenal rookie season the year before. DE/OLB Tamba Hali is a bona fide star after breaking the 12-sack mark two years in a row. LB Derrick Johnson once again led the team in sacks while chipping in two sacks and two INT's as well. CB Brandon Flowers returns after grabbing four INT's to lead the team. Rookie LB Justin Houston was a nice surprise with 5.5 sacks in his first NFL season. Overall, this entire unit ranked 14th in yards allowed and they have tried to add some more young pieces in the last few drafts. A top-10 ranking could come as soon as this year.
• Special Teams - Ryan Succop is a nice kicker and P Dustin Colquitt helped the team rank seventh in the league in punting.

Secret Weapon: CB/KR Javier Arenas - Although he is not ultra flashy, Arenas can cover well and should be in line to take over for the departed Brandon Carr. In his first two 31 games as a pro Arenas has collected 76 tackles, four sacks, two INT's, and over 700 return yards. If he can improve while stepping up into a bigger role on defense he could become a household name in Kansas City.

Top Newcomers:

• NT Dontari Poe - The 6'5" 350 lbs Poe could be just the monster of a man this team needs to help run the 3-4 defense. He didn't really light it up at Memphis but he won't be asked to in KC either. All he needs to do is occupy a ton of space and hold the line. Although, that job is easier said than done in the NFL.
• RB Peyton Hillis - After slumping last season Hillis will look to join the rotation in KC. With his bruising style and career 4.2 yards per carry average he should be a fine compliment to Charles as the Chiefs will look to run the ball at their division rivals.

Optimistic Fan Says: "We won this division two years ago and we were the only team to beat Green Bay in the regular season last year. With Charles and Berry back from injury our team gets a huge boost in production on both sides of the ball. I bet we will win 11 games and put ourselves in position to make a run deep into the playoffs."

Reality Check: It's hard to argue that the Chiefs do not have the talent to make the playoffs, because they do. Matt Cassel may not be among the top 20 starters in the league but he should be good enough to help keep defenses honest. Just don't expect him to carry the team on his shoulders. A nine or ten win season wouldn't really surprise anybody but winning the division outright will be tough as the AFC West got a little stronger this off-season.

Projected 2012 Record: 8-8

Oakland Raiders

Key Returnees:

• Offense - The Raiders were ninth in the NFL in total offense. RB Darren McFadden returns to find himself as the lone man in the backfield. He has the ability to push for 2,000 all-purpose yards now that the job is solely his. QB Carson Palmer also returns to find himself the unchallenged starter. He should provide a steadier hand at the wheel than this offense has seen in a while. WR Darius Heyward-Bey might be on the verge of a huge breakout season after nabbing a career high 64 receptions. He and position-mate Jacoby Ford are two of the fastest players in the league that Palmer will look to utilize whenever possible. The O-line ranked fourth in the league in sacks allowed despite being relatively young. Could there be big things to come with this group very soon?
• Defense - S Tyvon Branch, LB Rolando McClain, and S Matt Giordano were the team's top three tacklers and they all return. McClain looks like he could be all-pro material in the middle. The D-line should be a tough unit with all of last year's top performers returning, including DT Richard Seymour. LB Aaron Curry also returns after pumping some new life into his career in Oakland.
• Special Teams - K Sebastian Janikowski and P Shane Lechler are two of the best at what they do.

Secret Weapon: WR Jacoby Ford - He hasn't collected a ton of catches over his first two years in the league but his 17 yards per catch average is a fine example of what he is capable of doing. He was the fastest player coming out of college three years ago and could have a breakout season very soon.

Top Newcomers: 

• OG Tony Bergstrom - The Raiders keep finding nice pieces to the O-line puzzle in the middle rounds of the draft. Bergstrom should continue that trend as he could be a starter by the end of the season.
• WR Juron Criner - There wasn't really much to talk about in terms of the draft in Oakland, but Criner could fly under the radar and develop into a solid player over the next few seasons.

Optimistic Fan Says: "Come into our house and you are most likely going to find yourself in a deep, dark world of shit my friend! We are Raider nation and we take our role as league hooligans very seriously. Playoffs here we come!! GO RAIDERS!!! 

Reality Check: Although the Raiders' organization should take a better direction now that the shadow of Al Davis is not holding the team back from moving forward into the modern football era, it's hard to imagine all the stars aligning and making a trip to the playoffs possible this year. Does Oakland have a shot at the postseason? Yes. Will they make it? Probably not.

Projected 2012 Record: 7-9

San Diego Chargers

Key Returnees:

• Offense - QB Phillip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates have arguably been two of the best players at their respective positions over the last several seasons. Both guys appear to be healthy and poised for good season. RB Ryan Mathews stepped up to the plate and delivered last year as well with 4.9 yards per carry and 50 catches for 455 yards. WR Malcolm Floyd also returns his career 18 yards per catch average. The O-line allowed only 30 sacks and they should help the team improve its rushing game. Altogether, there's enough returning to field another solid offense. 
• Defense - S Eric Weddle played like an all-pro last season, placing third on the team in tackles and nabbing seven INT's. He spearheads a decent secondary that also includes veteran CB's Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason. The front seven has got a lot of young pieces that possess a lot of potential. LB's Donald Butler and Antwan Barnes and D-linemen Cam Thomas and Antonio Garay all appear to have bright futures ahead of them in the NFL.
• Special Teams - The Chargers are at least average in most major special teams categories. They were sixth in the league in kick returns. 

Secret Weapon: WR Eddie Royal - Does anybody remember this guy's rookie year in Denver when he had Jay Cutler throwing to him? Yeah, he had 91 catches for 980 yards! Look for him to regain that form get over 100 targets from Rivers this year as the Chargers second or third receiver. He could very well lead the team in catches by the time it's all over.

Top Newcomers:

• WR Robert Meachem - The forgotten man in the Saints offense in recent years, Meachem just couldn't get ahead of other guys or garner the complete confidence of QB Drew Brees. Maybe things will be different for him in San Diego.
• WR Eddie Royal - See above.
• FB LeRon McClain - So you want to toughen up your offense a bit? Well, bringing in arguably one of the best all-around blocking backs in the league should help. McClain has the size and ability to help move the chains.
• LB/DE Melvin Ingram - Drafted in the first round to bolster the outside pass-rush and seal off the edge against the run, Ingram could be just what the Dr. ordered in San Diego. However, he could just as likely be a bust. Only time will tell and I suspect it will be a year or two before we find out just what kind of player he is.
• DL Kendall Reyes - Another big (6'4" 300 lbs) body to plug in up front. He could be a big factor for the team down the road.

Optimistic Fan Says: "We've been paper champs for far too long. This offense is set to explode for about 7,000 yards this season and the defense will at least be good enough to not blow any games. A 12-4 season seems about right!"

Reality Check: Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City all got a little better this past off-season and this division should be competitive and fun to watch in 2012. The stage could be set for one of these teams to rip off a bunch of wins and make a run deep in the playoffs, but history, along with my gut, tells me that they won't get too far.

Projected 2012 Record: 11-5