The Optimistic NFL Fan's Preview: NFC North Division

NFC North:

Chicago Bears

Key Returnees:

• Offense - The Bears were ninth in the NFL in rushing yards per game. RB Matt Forte is a hard-working, versatile component and Marion Barber, who scored six TD's last season, is a nice compliment to him. Forte just got rewarded with a new contract as well so big things are expected from him. QB Jay Cutler single-handedly beat the Lions last season and he outplayed a lot of other Bears' players, but his style and lack of big stats has been criticized over the years. The fact that he carries a career 61.1 completion percentage and he has thrown at least 20 TD's every year he was a healthy starter tells you that he's got great ability. There is a returning mixture of young and veteran contributors at WR and TE. The team also put some effort into bolstering the receiver position in the off-season. The O-line looks to continue improving in pass protection. 
• Defense - This group of gritty players ranked fifth overall in yards allowed last season. DE Julius Peppers and LB's Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher lead the way as some of the NFL's best players at their respective positions. 
• Special Teams - Devin Hester is one of the best returners of all-time. He should get more opportunities as his duties on offense diminish. Robbie Gould is a dependable kicker down the stretch as he ranked 10th in the league.

Secret Weapon: RB Kahlil Bell - Averaged 4.3 yards on 79 carries and also caught 19 passes last season. He could be primed for a slightly bigger role. At worst, he is a nice insurance policy in case something happens to Forte or Barber.

Top Newcomers:

• WR Brandon Marshall - He gets to reunite with Cutler after four years since the two played greatly together in Denver. He should catch at least 80 balls and could possibly reach double-digit TD's. 
• DT Brian Price - Traded from Tampa for a seventh round pick after being a second rounder just two years ago. He simply fell out of favor after a tumultuous offseason that saw him endure some hardships off the field and then being at the center of a locker room fight during minicamp. The team needed to improve their depth here and Price still has the potential to develop into a quality starter. 
• WR Alshon Jeffrey - This rookie pass-catcher has the size (6'4" 229 lbs) to become a real weapon in the red zone. He doesn't need to start but if he can nail down the second or third receiver position it would go a long way towards helping Cutler win games. 

Optimistic Fan Says: "Cutler is just reaching his prime at 29 years old and is getting reunited with Marshall, who is one of the best receivers in the league. The addition of Jeffrey through the draft will put the offense over the top! Oh, and don't forget, we still have one of the baddest D's in the land."

Reality Check: Optimistic fan could be right if everybody stays healthy, but it will be tough to weave through the division with Green Bay and Detroit lighting up the scoreboard. The playoffs are a good possibility but I don't see them winning more than ten games. At worst they look like a 7-9 team, which may be enough to get Head Coach Lovie Smith fired.

Projected 2012 Record: 10-6

Detroit Lions

Key Returnees

• Offense - The Lions were fifth in total yards and fourth in passing yards in 2011. QB Matt Stafford threw for 5,038 yards and 41 TD's with 1,681 of those yards and 16 of those TD's going to WR Calvin Johnson. They should be a deadly combo in Detroit for a long time. Nate Burleson and Titus Young also return at WR while Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler return at TE. Pettigrew could be the next TE to eclipse 100 receptions in a season. RB's Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith both nearly averaged five yards per carry last year and they could combine for over 2,000 all-purpose yards if they can both stay on the field. Best especially has some big-play potential that is still untapped. Mikel Leshoure also enters the mix in the backfield after missing his entire rookie season with a knee injury so depth should not be a problem this year. The O-line is simply made up of a bunch of overachievers that do not do anything extraordinary but come to work with a lunch-pail mentality that more often than not works.
• Defense - The Lions return some key components on defense, including the top two tacklers in LB's Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy, as well as their top pass-rusher in DE Cliff Avril. In fact, the entire D-line that was 10th in the NFL in sacks returns and are looking towards bigger and better things. The secondary, which was tops in the NFL in pick-sixes, returns three out of four starters, including CB Chris Houston who paced the team with five INT's. As long as Amari Spievey and Louis Delmas stay healthy the safety positions should be secure. 
• Special Teams - K Jason Hanson returns for his 100th season as "the greatest Lion ever" and the coverage units all ranked among the top half of the units in the league. In other words, the team should not lose any games due to special teams.

Secret Weapon: TE Tony Scheffler - Scheffler only caught 26 passes last season but he scored six times. That averages out to roughly 1.4 points every time he touched the ball. He has averaged 35 catches per season as a backup over his six year career and he should continue to get plenty of action while defenses key in on some of D-town's bigger weapons.

Top Newcomers: 

• SS Sean Jones - Jones has had a solid career and led Tampa Bay in tackles last season. He will either start on the strong side or back up both spots. Either way he makes the the defense deeper and more secure down the middle of the field. 
• OT Reilly Reif - The 6'6" 300 lbs pass-protector from Iowa was the Lions' first round pick this past April and he should find a predominant role early in his NFL career. He isn't anything flashy but he looks like the Lions got the second-coming of Jeff Backus. 
• WR Ryan Broyles - Although Reiff is getting most of the attention, Broyles stands to have the biggest impact on the team if he can recover from knee surgery. That may be a lot to ask of him at this point but the guy was one of the most prolific pass catchers while breaking the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision record with 349 receptions. He was also a two-time All-American. This guy should have been a first round pick and he should be a nice fit in Detroit's aerial attack sooner or later.
• RB Mikel Leshoure - Even though he has been on the Lions' roster for over a year now, Leshoure has yet to step onto the field after tearing up his knee during last year's training camp. If all goes well this 6'0' 230 lbs back could help solidify the position. 

Optimistic Fan Says: "We got over the hump last year and got our feet wet in the playoffs. This team is very hungry and is out to prove they are not a bunch of misfit one-year wonders. Anything less than a division title and an appearance in the NFC Championship will be a letdown. I'll bet $5000 that we win a Super Bowl in the next five years!"

Reality Check: The lack of depth along the O-line and in the secondary could prove fatal for the Lions when matching up against the likes of Chicago and Green Bay. Some maturity issues also need to be resolved before this team can really make a run in the playoffs. However, few teams in the league have the ability to air-it-out like the Lions and the Giants and Patriots both proved last year that you do not need good defense to get to the Super Bowl.

Projected 2012 Record: 10-6

Green Bay Packers

Key Returnees:

• Offense - QB Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best passers in the league for the last three years. His combination of elite field vision, intelligence, accuracy, and arm-strength is the prototype of what franchises are looking for in their signal-callers. His 45 TD's and 6 INT's are about as good as it gets statistically speaking, and the team ranked third overall in total yards per game. Three different receivers caught at least 55 passes last season and another four caught at least 25. There isn't any real standouts or all-world players on the outside but there is an arsenal of decent weapons for Rodgers to choose from, including Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and super-athletic TE Jermichael Finley. The O-line is improving as the team has spent a lot of high draft picks over the past few years to inject some talent into the group. The top two backs both averaged over four yards per carry but they are not the focal point of the game plan. 
• Defense - LB Desmond Bishop paced the team with 115 tackles and five sacks while SS Morgan Burnett established himself as a reliable starter last season after having injury problems since being drafted in 2010. The ageless Charles Woodson does not know how to quit as he nabbed another seven INT's after 15 years of playing corner in the league. The team's other two CB's, Tramon Williams and Sam Sheilds, each also got four. B.J. Raji and Ryan Picket are big, capable run-stoppers on the DL that can collapse the pocket and disrupt the backfield. OLB Clay Mathews is a fan favorite and has double-digit sack potential every year. 
• Special Teams - Rookie WR Randall Cobb averaged nearly 28 yards per kick return and returned both a kickoff and a punt for TD's. He should continue to get the prolific offense in good position week in and week out. K Mason Crosby was fourth in the league in scoring so the Packers don't need to get the ball in the endzone every time they get it.

Secret Weapon: WR Jordy Nelson - He isn't exactly a well-kept secret but most NFL fans probably wouldn't be able to tell you whether or not he is even a starter or what kind of stats he put up last season. While everybody was paying more attention to Rodgers,Jennings, and Finley, Nelson quietly led the team with 68 catches for 1263 yards and 15 TD's. Those are hefty numbers for somebody that is often the third or fourth option in the game. That might just tell you how good Rodgers really is at QB as well.

Top Newcomer:

• OLB Nick Perry - The Packers' first round pick will have a lot of eyes on him this preseason as Cheesehead nation is looking for anybody to step up opposite Clay Mathews. Anything less than eight sacks per year during his career might be a letdown. 
• DE Anthony Hargrove - He doesn't add much in terms of splash plays but he is a steady veteran with a lot of experience that can help this defense get back on track.
• C Jeff Saturday - Although his body is past its prime Mr. Saturday should change his name to Mr. Sunday after starting 188 games in 14 years for the Colts. Peyton Manning wanted him in Denver but the heady vet opted for a more established system in Green Bay. Smart move.
• DL Jerel Worthy - Worthy was a big-time performer at Michigan State and the Packers like his ability to disrupt blocking schemes and make plays. At the very least they hope he can simply improve the overall depth along the line.

Optimistic Fan Says: "We will bring the Lombardi Trophy home again this year! There is not a better QB than Aaron Rodgers in the entire world and our little slip-up against the Giants last year will only make the team more hungry for another championship. Some added talent on defense will seal the deal on some games come winter."

Reality Check: There still may not be enough of a pass-rush or overall depth on defense to win the Lombardi Trophy and I'm not personally impressed with the selection of Nick Perry when RB Doug Martin, LB Courtney Upshaw, and CB Janoris Jenkins are still on the board. Anyway, the biggest issue may now be what happens if Rodgers misses any length of time with injury. The team does not have any good candidates to take over if he does now that Matt Flynn is gone. I would bet on this team winning 11 games though, and probably winning a playoff game or two come January. Unseating the Packers as division champs will be a tall order for Detroit or Chicago.

Projected 2012 Record: 11-5

Minnesota Vikings

Key Returnees:

• Offense - RB's Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart combined for 1,500 yards rushing last season and WR/RB Percy Harvin averaged 6.6 yards on 52 carries as well. Expect more of a committee approach in the near future to help stretch out Peterson's career a while longer. Rookie QB Christian Ponder averaged seven yards per carry. Not bad for somebody who was simply running for his life! The team is hopeful that he will settle down and deliver more passes in his second season, with Harvin being on the receiving end of at least 80 of them. TE Kyle Rudolph played well enough as a rookie to allow the team to let veteran Visanthe Shiancoe sign elsewhere. 
• Defense - LB's Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson lead the NFC's fifth ranked rush defense and DE Jared Allen collected an amazing 22 sacks to raise his career total to 105. If some younger players in the secondary improve in their second and third seasons the defense overall could be a rock. 
• Special Teams - Harvin is one of the best kick returners in the league and the Vikings were second in the NFL in average yards per return.

Secret Weapon: TE John Carlson - His stats slipped a little in 2011 while still playing in Seattle but this guy could team up with Rudolph to give them some major production from the TE position. Do not be surprised if these two combine for over 120 catches and a dozen TD's. Of course, some things need to work out at QB first in order for that to happen.

Top Newcomers:

• OT Matt Kalil - The Vikings made a nice move in the draft to trade down for more picks and still get the guy they would've taken with the second overall selection in the first place. If the team can plug Kalil into the left tackle job like they think they can then other elements of the offense should start to come together as well. 
• WR Jerome Simpson - Not a true number one receiver but he can make some big plays from the second or third spot. He did produce the single-most exciting plays last year when he flipped over a Cardinals' defender and landed on his feet for a TD. Youtube it!
• WR Michael Jenkins - Another guy that is not a true number one type, but the former first round pick by Atlanta can catch 40 or 50 balls for the Vikings to help make up for the loss of Sidney Rice.
• S Harrison Smith - A sound tackler and decent athlete out of Notre Dame could come in and be a starter as a rookie. The Vikings moved back up into the first round to get him so the team is betting on his ability to lead the secondary sooner rather than later. 

Optimistic Fan Says: "Kalil will solidify the line and Ponder will get better as a result. The team is built well-built to run the ball well and control the game, which is a different approach than the rest of the teams in the NFC North. The Lions, Packers, and Bears are all predominantly built to toss the ball up and down the field.  That could give us a huge advantage come December."

Reality Check: Ponder is as big of a question mark as there is in terms of being a starting QB in the NFL. He'll get plenty of opportunity to prove he can play but if he doesn't perform well enough the team will find a replacement as soon as next off-season. The other teams are just too good to give the Vikings a real shot at making the playoffs but stranger things have happened I guess.

Projected 2012 Record: 5-11

Coming Up Next: AFC North